How Israel’s operation in Rafah affects aid for Palestinians and cease-fire talks

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• Amna Nawaz:

  As reported earlier, an Israeli delegation has arrived in Cairo for crucial cease-fire talks a day after Hamas said it had accepted an Egyptian-Qatari proposal.

  To explore what could happen next, we turn now to Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute. That's a think tank here in Washington.

  Hussein, good to see you.

• Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute:

  Thank you very much.

• Amna Nawaz:

  So let's begin with the Israeli troops seizing that critical Rafah border crossing today. What does that say to you, that there's some larger incursion imminent or a different kind of strategy?

• Hussein Ibish:

  No, it doesn't say that.

  What it says to me is that the Israelis are going ahead with key parts of their original war aim. At the beginning of the war, they definitely wanted to seize the Philadelphi Corridor, which is the parcel of land between the Egyptian border and Rafah and the urban areas most south of — in Gaza.

  And this is a crucial, strategically crucial area, which the Israelis agreed not to occupy in the peace treaty with Egypt and then again in 2005, when they redeployed their troops out of Gaza, and then again after 2007, when Hamas took over. They have agreed many times with the Egyptians not to take it.

  But I think they're determined after October 7 to reoccupy it, to create a buffer zone in the south that will mimic the buffer zone that they are going to beef up and greatly strengthen in the north, the one that Hamas and the others breached on October 7.

  And, lastly, I think they're thinking about maintaining troops in a buffer zone in the center of Gaza, dividing Gaza in half between north and south. And this sets up a potential set of targets for a long-term insurgency against Israeli troops.

  So it's the kind of long-term plan that Hamas likes to hear about, frankly.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Well, at a time when we have the head of the World Food Program saying there's already a full-blown famine in Northern Gaza moving south, what does the seizing of this border crossing mean in terms of its impact on the ground?

• Hussein Ibish:

  Well, it's dire, because every parcel of food that goes through is crucial, because people are living on the brink of starvation. And in the north, they are starving.

  And there have been trucks going through the Rafah crossing, the crossing that is now blocked off by Israeli troops, through Egypt.

  And the Israelis have been very restrictive through the crossings they controlling, including Kerem Shalom, which is the one that could really handle large amounts. And that's why the United States has been trying to build this maritime pier and other countries have done airdrops. But it is a potentially huge problem, adding to the famine conditions in Gaza.

• Amna Nawaz:

  What about the negotiations over a potential cease-fire and hostage release?

  We heard the U.S. national security spokesperson, John Kirby, today say they believe the text is close.

• Hussein Ibish:

  Yes.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Do you share that optimism? You think both sides are incentivized to make a deal right now?

• Hussein Ibish:

  I think that both the Netanyahu government, especially Netanyahu, and also Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, believe they profited politically off of the war. And they would both like to keep it going.

  But Hamas is under so much pressure from their own leaders outside of Gaza, from the people of Gaza, from other Palestinians, and from Arab countries, that they have had to shift their policies very greatly.

  They were calling for a total cease-fire. They're now apparently willing to accept a series of short-term cease-fires. And they have shifted a lot. So it's possible there could be an agreement. But Netanyahu keeps talking about a rough operation with or without a cease-fire. He's really kind of sabotaging the talks.

  And the Israeli delegation is a mid-level delegation, meeting — meaning they don't have any authority. They're just there to be there. They really are there for show. And that's a big problem. So we will see.

  Netanyahu is under a lot of pressure to get hostages out if he can. But if he can avoid this cease-fire, he's going to do it. And I think we can see how the Israelis are going to do their Rafah operation without confronting the Biden administration, piecemeal little bit here, a little bit there, rather than a giant, smashing attack, like they did in Khan Yunis, reducing the place to a moonscape in a few days.

  They will just salami-slice it off bit by bit. The problem for Biden is, that may take the war into the summer. And that's bad news for his campaign.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Hussein, what about the Saudi influence here? We heard the foreign minister just refer to the war and use the word genocide for the first time…

• Hussein Ibish:

  Yes.

• Amna Nawaz:

  … in an English-language press release, we should say, so it's for outside consumption.

  How do you read that? Why now?

• Hussein Ibish:

  Well, it's also going to be consumed inside Saudi Arabia.

  And I think the Saudis are trying to exercise their influence. They're — they have made a lot of progress with the United States on bilateral issues that could contribute to a triangular agreement with the U.S. and Israel that would involve them normalizing with Israel, which would be a huge win for the U.S., a huge win for Israel, and good for Saudi Arabia as well.

  But they need the Israelis to recognize the Palestinian right to a state, which Israel has never done, and agree to enter into a process for the eventual creation of some sort of Palestinian state. And this Israeli government is dead set against anything like that.

  So Biden is pressuring them on that. The Saudis are pressuring them on that. The world is pressuring them on that. But they appear to be more addicted to seizing the land of the West Bank than for peace and stability and security and strengthening their own strategic position. That's the ideological extremism of this Israeli government.

• Amna Nawaz:

  That's Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute.

  Good to see you. Thank you for being here.

• Hussein Ibish:

  Thank you very much.